The world could face a shock economic recession next year as global stock markets show patterns that “resemble the Great Depression of 1929”. Global markets have been rocked by a plunge in the Dow, a meltdown in crude oil trading and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs. LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick branded the recent December figures “devastating” before remarking that this warranted fears of a recession.
He told Fox Business News: “I am an optimistic guy but the S&P 500 has been down for four days in a row. The S&P hasn’t been down five days in a row since the Great Depression.
“This is devastating. The big question is whether we will get a recession in 2019 or not?
“There is the genuine threat that the market could trigger a self-fulling propehcy with a recession.
“It is possible. The issues with the Federal Reserve and the China-US trade war could pose a problem for this.”
According to Kristina Hooper, global market strategist at Invesco, a mistake by the Federal Reserve or an escalation in the trade wars are “major risks” for an imminent downturn.
Investment firm PIMCO puts the chance of a recession in the next year at 30 percent, the highest of the entire economic expansion.
However, this probability could surge after the Nasdaq plunged last week into its first bear market since the Great Recession
The Dow also suffered its worst week in more than ten years, sending investors into a panic.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said that dropping oil prices show the market is worried about a recession in 2019.
Data from Google Trends also shows that searches for “recession” have hit their highest level since November 2009.
According to online experts, this indicates a far wider concern for a concession than previously anticpated.
Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said that a recession will “certainly happen in 2020” but downplayed fears of a 2019 downturn.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, also predicted a recession by 2020.