Morgan Stanley reportedly thinks the October stock selloff is turning into a bear market.
“The rolling bear market continues to make progress and there is growing evidence that it is morphing into a proper cyclical bear market,” Morgan Stanley writes, CNBC reported.
Morgan Stanley’s top stock strategist is concerned that actions by the Federal Reserve are drying up liquidity more than most investors predicted.
“We think the evidence is building and the message from Mr. Market is clear: the consensus outlook for earnings growth is too rosy next year,” wrote Michael Wilson, the bank’s chief equity strategist.
Some corporate officials have warned that 2019 could be troublesome because of higher borrowing costs brought on by rate hikes and an uncertain future because of the China trade tariff squabble.
“The markets seem to agree and have been quietly revolting all year,” Wilson added. “We don’t think the revolts will stop until central banks pause or at least signal they are concerned. With the Fed having to respond to still strong economic data and the desire to remain apolitical, we think it could take another 200 S&P points making 2,450 a reasonable downside target to consider.”
To be sure, U.S. stock index futures were higher on Tuesday, coming off yet another bout of volatile trading the previous session, as investors weighed the latest salvo in the U.S.-China trade war and earnings reports from blue-chip companies, Reuters reported.
President Donald Trump said he believes “a great deal” on trade can be struck with China, and that he has billions of dollars worth of new tariffs ready if a deal isn’t possible.
The comments came after a Bloomberg report that Washington was preparing to announce tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports by early December if talks next month between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping failed.
The report sparked a wild ride on Wall Street on Monday, with the blue-chip Dow Industrials falling more than 900 points from its high and the benchmark S&P 500 closing within a whisker of confirming correction territory.
“The futures are pointing to a bounce at the opening after yesterday’s swings, suggesting another similar session is in the making,” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities LLC in New York, said in a client note.
“Nevertheless, we think we are getting very close to the end of the correction.”
Tariffs and rising costs have been among the factors that have led to a slew of disappointing forecasts from major industrials, chipmakers and other sectors, adding worries about slowing corporate growth to fears of faltering global growth.